🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.