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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd