Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
