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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.