Daily Homicides in the nation Fall 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The average figure of per-day homicides per month in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh official figures. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide figures may not point to improved countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for gauging the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it may hide days when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst remarked.