A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
